Understanding Belarus: Economy and Political Landscape

THE TWO EARLIER ARTICLES IN THIS THREE-PART SERIES focused on the linguistic situation in Belarus and on factors instrumental in shaping Belarusian identity. However, no attempt at understanding Belarus can succeed without examining its economic dynamics and political discourse. The analysis that follows will evaluate Belarus’ accomplishments under the Soviet regime. The point is made that the socio-economic situation in Belarus does not quite fit the abysmal picture painted by the international media. It is shown that, alongside the vague and ambivalent identity of ethnic Belarusians, the current economic paradigm embraced by the Belarus political regime is rooted in some Soviet-born constraints and in the desire to avert a major downturn in the living standard of Belarusians. The Belarusian political scene is identified as bi-polar with the centrist part being least structured and organised. Because of this the democratisation of Belarus has not succeeded so far. A part of the blame for this outcome lies with the West, which seems to misread the major conflict of interests in Belarus. Finally, attempts to pigeonhole the current socio-political situation in Belarus and the personality of its leader are analysed. The questions that inform the following analysis are: